Monday, October 02, 2006

 

The Dunigan Top 25 Ranking

THE PROBLEM. The problem with all the polls out there right now is that they are ALL based on opinions. You can not fairly rank a team based on personal opinion. For Instance, look at ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit. He is a nice guy, but he is completely incapable of leaving his personal feelings toward his Alma Mater, Ohio State, aside and placing honest votes for the best teams. His most recent poll places Ohio State #1 and Michigan #2. Ohio State at #1 is a legitimate vote. Michigan at #2 out of the blue is a bit ridiculous based on the polls over the last few weeks however and shows his blatant biasness towards the Big 10 Conference of which Ohio State and Michigan are members.

Now, here is where I throw the curve ball. There is absolutely NOTHING wrong with Herbstreit's voting, because it is his opinion and that is what all those polls you see out there are based on: opinion. Herbstreit has his opinion, the main thing being that he is a voting member of the Associated Press' Top 25 Poll. Until opinion can be removed from polls, we will never have a legitimate top 25 that accurately reflects who SHOULD be ranked at what position.

PROBLEM SOLVED. The past few years I have spent my free time working on a poll that would eliminate opinion from the equation. The poll I have developed is not really a poll at all because I do not solicit votes from other to see where they think teams should be ranked. This Top 25 "Ranking" is performance based, and relies solely on strength of schedule and wins and losses. Strength of schedule, too, has been influenced in recent years by opinion, as playing any team from a BCS conference carries more weight in the opinions of voters than playing any team from a non-BCS conference. However, if Duke from the ACC (a BCS conference), were to play Boise State from the WAC (a non-BCS conference), there is no question in my mind that Boise State would wipe the field with the Blue Devils. This shows the disparity of opinions between BCS and non-BCS schools.

THE CONFUSING PART. My Top 25 Ranking is based on a system of points awarded for wins, with zero points for losses. It should be noted that points awarded for wins over 1A teams are the same for all 1A teams and likewise for 1AA teams. Points are also awarded for each win an opponent your team beats has gained during the season. For example, if Notre Dame beat Army, they would get so many points based on a pre-determined amount of points awarded for a win over a Division 1A opponent. Now if Army happened to have a record of 2-1 overall, with 1 win over a 1A team and one win over a 1AA team, Notre Dame would get bonus points for each win Army had (more points are awarded for wins over 1A teams than are awarded for wins over 1AA teams). Notre Dame would receive no points for any losses Notre Dame has or any losses Army has. The total points would then be added up and divided by the number of games played. The resulting number is the teams final score. After all team's totals are acquired, the teams with the highest final score are ranked highest and continues down the ranking in descending order.

Now for the good part. After all that explanation, here, for the first time anywhere in the world, I am revealing my inaugural "Dunigan Top 25 Ranking." It has been a long process, tweaking different aspects, eliminating areas that were unnecessary and striving to eliminate opinion completely from the equation. So without further adieu...

THE DUNIGAN TOP 25 RANKING

1) USC...............................13.5
2) Ohio State....................13.4
3) Michigan.......................13.2
4) Florida...........................13.0
5) Auburn..........................12.6
6) Notre Dame..................11.4
Tie 7) Louisville................11.25
Tie 7) Oregon....................11.25
9) Oklahoma......................10.25
10) Boise State...................9.8
Tie 11) Rutgers..................9.6
Tie 11) Washington...........9.6
Tie 13) Wake Forest.........9.4
Tie 13) Georgia..................9.4
15) Boston College.............9.2
Tie 16) West Virginia........9.0
Tie 16) Tennessee.............9.0
Tie 16) Missouri................9.0
19) Texas Tech..................8.8
Tie 20) LSU........................8.4
Tie 20) Clemson.................8.4
Tie 20) Iowa.......................8.4
23) Arkansas......................8.25
Tie 24) California...............8.0
Tie 24) Georgia Tech........8.0

Comments: Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link



<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?